Fall 2025

The investor has a reputation for short-selling and uncovering non-consensus long ideas, indicating a belief in Carvana's potential despite market skepticism.

David Poppe discusses his investment in Arista Networks, emphasizing the importance of aligning with great managers and the company's quality characteristics.

David Poppe highlights his investment in Progressive, focusing on quality and management alignment as key factors in his decision.

Andrew Rosenblum discusses his long position in Wise, reflecting his investment philosophy and thought process.

Andrew Rosenblum mentions FeverTree Drinks as a long position, indicating confidence in the company's growth potential.

Andrew Rosenblum includes XPEL in his long positions, suggesting a favorable outlook based on his investment philosophy.

The team of Bennett Lee, Srivats Mohan, Aaron Samuels, and Oliver Suffern won the 2025 Booth MBA Stock challenge with a pitch for dLocal, indicating a strong belief in its growth potential.

The team of Chidi Keng, James Michalski, and Gabriel Wensko Martins recommended the senior unsecured notes of Advance Auto Parts, showcasing confidence in the company's financial stability.

The team of Elliot Tompras, Craig Larkin, and Olivia Qi won the 2025 Darden Investing Challenge with a pitch for A.O. Smith Corp., indicating a strong belief in its investment potential.

The team of Victor D. Aguiar, Leonardo M. Fernandes, Alejandro Lalla Dodds, Carolina Sanchez Alzamora, and Rogerio Rios presented a pitch for MercadoLibre, indicating confidence in its market position and growth prospects.

Overstock is positioned well due to its innovative product tZero, which utilizes blockchain technology for quicker and more efficient settlements. The CEO, Patrick Byrne, is seen as misunderstood, and the potential for tZero to prevent naked short-selling could lead to significant financial opportunities as the market has not fully recognized its value.

Wise is evolving from a consumer-facing company to a platform business, which is promising for its future growth. The company is already profitable and has significant cash balances, making it well-positioned to capitalize on the challenges faced by unprofitable competitors. Additionally, rising interest rates have created an unrecognized earnings stream from customer balances, enhancing its investment appeal.

Kering, particularly its Gucci brand, has a strong heritage and brand recognition that supports a return to higher profitability levels. The current margins are depressed, but the intrinsic value based on brand strength suggests that they will normalize, leading to attractive valuation multiples.

The appointment of Luca de Meo as the first independent CEO marks a significant change for Kering, as it separates the roles of CEO and chair for the first time. This change is expected to enhance governance and potentially improve the company's performance, given de Meo's positive track record at Renault.

Watches of Switzerland is trading at a very low valuation despite its strong partnership with Rolex and a well-incentivized management team. The recent Swiss tariffs were incorporated into the valuation, and there are indications that these tariffs may be reduced, which could further enhance the company's prospects. The stock was purchased in August after a significant price drop, reflecting confidence in its medium-term distribution relationship with Rolex.

TBC is trading at under 5x earnings in a strong market, particularly in Georgia, which has promising GDP growth. The bank is gaining deposit share in Uzbekistan, where financial penetration is low, presenting a significant growth opportunity over the next 5-10 years. The quality of management, especially in their Uzbek operations, adds to the attractiveness of the investment.

NLB was initiated as a position during its IPO in November 2018 due to a compelling setup where the Slovenian government was under pressure to sell a stake in a cleaned-up bank. The bank's valuation at around 7x earnings and a dividend yield above 7% presents a significant margin of safety relative to intrinsic value, especially with excess capital expected to be returned to shareholders or used for M&A.

Gavin Baker pitched Carvana as a short due to its poor management track record, questionable accounting practices, and a flawed business model that was exacerbating losses. The company's high debt costs and operational issues, particularly related to title transfers, indicated significant underlying problems that analysts were overlooking.

Carvana was trading at about 53x EV/EBITDA, a significant premium to its peers, and there were undisclosed SEC investigations that the market was unaware of. This created an asymmetrical risk to the downside, leading to a belief that the stock was misunderstood and overvalued.

RocketLab was identified as a unique investment opportunity due to its launch capacity for satellites outside of SpaceX, and it was trading at $8 when it was largely overlooked by the market. The satellite sector is under-researched and poised for growth, making RocketLab a compelling investment.

Vodafone, an early investor in satellite technology, is expected to benefit from the launch of AST Mobile's satellite, positioning it well in a growing sector. This makes Vodafone an attractive investment despite being a consensus short in Europe at the time.

We recommend a BUY for dLocal, a scaled emerging-markets payments infrastructure provider that is at an inflection point. TPV growth is re-accelerating, take-rate compression is stabilizing, and a new management team is tightening execution. The stock trades at a discount to developed market peers at 17x P/E NTM and 7% FCF yield, with a projected 50% return over the next 12 months driven by an 8% NTM EPS beat, 28% EPS roll-forward, and a re-rating to 20x P/E NTM.

DLO is positioned to capitalize on the significant growth in digital payments in emerging markets, which are expected to see mid-teens growth through 2030. The company addresses the complexities of local payment ecosystems, allowing global merchants to outsource their payment operations. With a new management team focused on improving execution and governance, and a target price of $20 per share based on a 20x forward P/E multiple, DLO presents an attractive risk/reward opportunity.

The investor believes dLocal is well-positioned in the payments processing sector, particularly in emerging markets, which presents significant growth opportunities.

We recommend buying 7.375% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2033, which currently trade at 100.008 and yield 7.37%. With $975 million outstanding and Ba3 / BB ratings, the notes offer attractive spread compression potential as fundamentals stabilize. Our base-case target price of 105.634 by year-end 2026 implies a 6.25% yield and delivers a compelling 13.3% IRR and 1.13x MOIC.

Supply chain restructuring is driving margin expansion through operational efficiency gains, enhanced availability and service, and a significant improvement in operating margin. The company's bonds trade at a discount to peers, suggesting an opportunity for spread compression as they reprice toward more favorable valuations.

A. O. Smith is a leading global manufacturer of water heaters and treatment products with a strong market position, particularly in North America where it holds a significant share. The company is expected to achieve a 5-year price target of $118.5, representing a 71% upside and an internal rate of return of 14%.

A. O. Smith Corporation is positioned to benefit from non-discretionary sales and regulatory tailwinds that will drive revenue growth beyond consensus expectations. With a significant portion of the residential market driven by replacement demand and upcoming DOE regulations expected to boost orders, AOS is set to capitalize on market share gains in the commercial sector as well. The company's strong R&D and proprietary technology further enhance its competitive advantage.

A. O. Smith Corp. benefits from vertical integration and strong wholesaler relationships, which provide durable cost advantages. The company has compounded net income at an 11% CAGR since 2013 while maintaining disciplined capital allocation, leading to strong future returns. With a target price of $118.5 by December 2029, the stock has significant upside potential based on projected earnings growth and share repurchases.

MercadoLibre is positioned to benefit from the growing e-commerce and fintech sectors in Latin America, leveraging its strong market presence and innovative solutions. The company has demonstrated robust growth and has a solid strategy for expanding its services across the region.

We recommend a long position in MercadoLibre with a 7–10 year horizon. Although the stock appears expensive on near-term multiples, our base-case DCF indicates significant upside and a strong IRR over the long term, driven by scale advantages in e-commerce, increasing monetization from credit and advertising, and the expansion of Mercado Pago into a comprehensive financial platform.

MercadoLibre is positioned to benefit from structural growth in Latin American e-commerce, which is currently at about 10% penetration compared to higher rates in developed markets. The company's extensive logistics network and investments in fulfillment will support high GMV growth and improving unit economics. Additionally, its high-margin advertising and credit services will enhance revenue streams and margins over time.

Vulcan Materials operates in a less glamorous sector of sand, gravel, and asphalt, but it demonstrates that competitive moats can exist in these types of businesses. The company's ability to generate economic profits is tied to having resources in the right locations, which can drive value creation despite the lack of flashiness compared to tech stocks.

Costco has maintained a unique business model with a commitment to a 14% gross margin, fostering exceptional customer loyalty and a strong culture. Despite the low margin, the company has achieved consistent operating margins and growth, demonstrating the effectiveness of its founder's vision and the enduring culture post-retirement.

Constellation Software has demonstrated durability in its vertical market software assets, which are essential for clients like hospitals and municipal airports. The company’s strong culture and leadership under Mark Leonard suggest it will continue to thrive despite concerns over AI's impact on its business.

Taiwan Semiconductor is a crucial supplier for leading technology companies, including Nvidia and Apple, and trades at a lower multiple than its customers. The geopolitical risks associated with the stock are similar to those faced by its customers, making it a compelling investment as AI demand grows.

AAON has a strong position in liquid cooling for data centers, which is expected to see sustained demand as data center construction continues to grow, particularly with the rise of AI technologies.

Alphabet is a leader in AI research and capability, with strong applications including Waymo. The company’s innovative approach and powerful position in AI make it a solid long-term investment.

Meta has a clear use case for AI in targeted advertising, which enhances its business model. As computing power improves, Meta's ability to target ads will strengthen, making it a compelling investment.

Arista Networks offers a superior total-cost-of-ownership proposition for large customers like Meta and Microsoft, who rely on its technology for effective network management and power efficiency. Despite concerns about competition from white-box solutions, Arista has proven its value by generating significant revenue and profit, indicating strong customer loyalty and demand for its products.

Progressive has a strong data advantage and is likely to be the most profitable company in auto insurance in five years. Despite concerns about market share and competition, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on future opportunities, including the shift to autonomous driving and potential international expansion.

Kinsale Capital has roughly 1.5% market share but excels in the insurance lines it writes, boasting a lower expense structure compared to competitors. This positions them well for growth in a niche market.

Watsco is a technology-enabled distributor in an industry dominated by small operators. Their app connects contractors, streamlining business operations and pricing, which will help them gain a competitive edge.

Progressive is considered a strong performer in its industry, indicating confidence in its business model and market position.

Installed Building Products is recognized as one of the best companies in its industry, suggesting a solid investment opportunity based on its performance.

Wise has built an alternative to SWIFT for international money transfers, leveraging its platform business to provide banks with a more efficient solution. This shift towards a bank-level platform could significantly increase Wise's transaction volumes and market presence.

Fever-Tree is well-positioned to benefit from trends in alcohol consumption, including the rise of mocktails and wellness trends, which can lead to increased demand for high-quality mixers. The partnership with Molson enhances their distribution and manufacturing capabilities in the USA, potentially driving further growth as beer companies seek to diversify into mixers.

XPEL has potential for growth through new products and verticals, as well as dealership expansion. The company's focus on conservative forecasting allows for positive surprises, and the CEO's approach to capital allocation is seen as a green flag for investors.