Carvana Co.
Thesis
Gavin Baker pitched Carvana as a short due to its poor management track record, questionable accounting practices, and a flawed business model that was exacerbating losses. The company's high debt costs and operational issues, particularly related to title transfers, indicated significant underlying problems that analysts were overlooking.
Did it work?
Although the short thesis had dramatic interim validation — Carvana's stock collapsed over 95% from its 2021 peak into late 2022 amid bankruptcy fears, debt distress, and the very operational/accounting concerns Baker cited — the stock subsequently mounted one of the most violent recoveries in recent market history. Over the full 55 months since the pitch, the stock is up 62.2%, meaning a short position held over the period lost money decisively. Given the long elapsed horizon and a final return strongly against the short direction, the pitch ultimately failed despite its prescient interim drawdown call.