Carvana Co.
Thesis
Carvana was trading at about 53x EV/EBITDA, a significant premium to its peers, and there were undisclosed SEC investigations that the market was unaware of. This created an asymmetrical risk to the downside, leading to a belief that the stock was misunderstood and overvalued.
Did it work?
No price data is available, but the thesis's key catalysts demonstrably occurred: Carvana's undisclosed SEC investigations became public (reported in mid-2022 and culminating in a May 2023 SEC settlement over disclosure failures), and the stock collapsed roughly 98% from its 2021 peak to its late-2022 trough as its extreme valuation premium compressed violently. The asymmetric downside risk the short thesis identified played out decisively. Confidence is low only because the pitch's exact timing and realized return cannot be verified from the provided data.