MercadoLibre, Inc.
Thesis
We recommend a long position in MercadoLibre with a 7–10 year horizon. Although the stock appears expensive on near-term multiples, our base-case DCF indicates significant upside and a strong IRR over the long term, driven by scale advantages in e-commerce, increasing monetization from credit and advertising, and the expansion of Mercado Pago into a comprehensive financial platform.
Did it work?
This is a 7–10 year structural growth thesis predicated on DCF upside from e-commerce scale, credit/advertising monetization, and Mercado Pago expansion. The -1.7% return is essentially flat and, with the elapsed time unknown, provides no signal about whether the long-term thesis is on track — such a modest move is normal noise over a multi-year horizon. No thesis-specific catalyst has been clearly confirmed or invalidated, so the pitch cannot yet be judged.