Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company
Thesis
Taiwan Semiconductor is a crucial supplier for leading technology companies, including Nvidia and Apple, and trades at a lower multiple than its customers. The geopolitical risks associated with the stock are similar to those faced by its customers, making it a compelling investment as AI demand grows.
Did it work?
worked
confidence: high
The long thesis on TSMC played out emphatically: the stock returned +369.2% over 43 months, driven largely by the AI demand surge the thesis anticipated, with TSMC as the crucial supplier to Nvidia and other AI leaders. The valuation-gap argument also resolved favorably, as TSMC re-rated sharply relative to its customers. There is no meaningful ambiguity here — the direction, catalysts, and magnitude all confirm the thesis.