Spring 2013

Motors Liquidation Company General Unsecured Creditors (GUC) Trust Units (MTLQU) provide a compelling risk-reward opportunity as they are currently pricing in an unrealistically high level of allowed claims. The Trust Units pay out in New GM Securities, which are trading at a compelling valuation, and at $22.90/unit, they offer 15% - 85% upside, plus a free option on the underlying GM stock price.

Precision Castparts (PCP) is well positioned to benefit from accelerated growth in the aerospace sector due to its unique production capabilities and vertical integration. With a strong management team and a pristine balance sheet, PCP is expected to generate significant free cash flow and continue its strategy of consolidation in the aerospace supply chain, leading to a price target of $275.00, representing 50% upside from current levels.

We recommend investors buy Hertz stock with a 12-month target share price of $36, representing ~52% upside. The investment thesis includes the underestimation of the impact of Hertz's merger with Dollar Thrifty, the ability to counter falling used car prices, strong growth opportunities in the U.S., and the potential value unlocked by divesting the non-core Equipment Rental segment.

We recommend a long position in Advance Auto Parts stock with a three year target price of ~$165, representing a ~100% upside from the current share price of $80. AAP is undervalued due to an inefficient cost structure and has strong barriers to entry, significant free cash flow generation, and attractive growth opportunities in the commercial segment.

We recommend a BUY on Dollar Tree (DLTR) shares with a target price of $64.75, representing ~40% upside to today’s price of $45.99. DLTR is uniquely positioned as the only dollar store selling all items for $1, allowing it to maximize customer value and maintain high margins despite proximity to competitors like Wal-Mart. The company has significant growth potential with plans for more stores and can unlock additional value through a leveraged recapitalization.

Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) is mentioned as a long position, indicating confidence in its performance and potential for growth.

We recommend a long position in Stanley Black & Decker stock with a target price of $107.00, representing a ~43% total upside from the current share price of $76.40. The company is undervalued compared to its peers and has significant activist potential to unlock value through a spin-off of its security segment and a merger with Ingersoll-Rand's security division. This strategy would enhance focus on core segments and drive organic growth initiatives.

Yum! Brands is undervalued due to its suboptimal operating structure. A spinoff of its domestic operations from its high-growth international business would allow investors to better define their risk tolerance and could reverse an estimated 25% discount on the combined entity. The spinoff would also drive increased management discipline, improving operational efficiencies and growth potential.

An investment in Yum! Brands represents an attractive opportunity for an activist investor, with potential upside of 50-70% in two years. The proposed spinoff could unlock significant value, despite potential resistance from management and operational risks.

The investor is bearish on Amazon, questioning its long-term business model as it faces increasing competition and a shift towards digital media. They highlight Amazon's high depreciation rates and significant warehouse costs, suggesting that its current scale does not guarantee profitability. The investor believes that Amazon's growth is funded through negative working capital and stock options, which may not be sustainable in the long run.

The investor is long on UPS due to its strong free cash flow yield of 6% to 7% and the difficulty of replicating its extensive and profitable delivery network. They see UPS as a beneficiary of the trend towards e-commerce, contrasting it with Amazon's challenges in maintaining profitability.

The investor holds a small long position in Pacific Rubiales, a Colombian oil company, due to the improving political climate in Colombia and the country's rich oil resources. They believe the company's background with experienced engineers from Venezuela positions it well for growth in the oil sector.

Cliffs Natural Resources was down due to declining sales and earnings, with concerns about the domestic steel industry. However, the company has significant reserves in Northern Minnesota, which could be valuable if the market dynamics shift favorably.

G&K Services, which specializes in uniform rentals, is attractive based on its price-to-earnings, price-to-cash flow, and price-to-book value ratios, which are favorable relative to the market and its industry.

Texas Industries is a cement producer that was considered risky but has potential for recovery in the housing and road-building cycles. The investor sees a likelihood of a double in three years based on historical performance and future earnings potential.

Modine is a manufacturer of automotive radiators and heat exchange equipment with a strong market position. The investor started buying shares at around $8, seeing potential for earnings to reach $1.50 in 2015, which could lead to a significant return if the stock trades at a 10x multiple.

I like the company because I see an increasing set of fees and assets on which they can generate returns. The stock has done very well over the past six months, and if we have a really good housing market and Redwood continues to sell RMBS securitizations, the stock could still double over the next two or three years.

BYD is a learning machine that has rapidly improved its car quality despite entering the industry only recently. The company has shown impressive growth, with significant revenue and a large workforce, indicating strong operational capabilities in a competitive market.

Hertz is positioned to benefit from the ongoing recovery in travel demand as economies reopen. The company has made significant strides in restructuring its operations and improving its fleet management, which should enhance profitability moving forward.

Hertz is expected to maximize shareholder value by leveraging HERC, using proceeds to pay down corporate debt, and spinning off HERC in a tax-efficient manner. This strategy is projected to lead to EPS accretion of $0.14 to $0.19 and a target share price of $36, representing a 52% upside from the current price.

Advance Auto Parts is mentioned as a long position, indicating a positive outlook on the company's performance and potential for growth.

The investor believes that Dollar Tree has strong growth potential due to its expansion strategies and operational improvements. They see the company benefiting from increased store openings and enhanced customer execution under new leadership.

Yum! Brands is well-positioned in the fast-food industry with strong brand recognition and a diverse portfolio of restaurant chains. The company's focus on digital innovation and delivery services is expected to drive growth in the coming years.

The Bolloré Group is our largest position due to its statistical cheapness and the complex situation it presents, along with the talents of Vincent Bolloré as a capital allocator.

We have a sizable position in the Class B shares of Greif, Inc., a packaging manufacturer. The Class B shares are trading at about ten times earnings and pay a solid dividend, while the company is diversifying into profitable areas like flexible packaging. The management is actively buying back Class B shares, indicating confidence in the business's future growth.

We have a sizable position in Goldman Sachs, which is the most productive investment banking organization in terms of revenues per head. The company has a strong internal culture and a deep bench of talent, which positions it well to adapt to changes in the industry. We believe it remains undervalued relative to its tangible book value.

We are invested in the regional affiliates of Crédit Agricole, which are decent regional banks with low non-performing assets and solid loan loss reserves. They have a reasonable ROE and efficiency ratios, making them attractive investments despite the complexity of their structure.

Pacific Rubiales has a good record of developing reserves and is trading inexpensively relative to North American analogs. This makes it an attractive investment opportunity in the region, especially after recent political changes.