Modine Manufacturing Company
Thesis
Modine is a manufacturer of automotive radiators and heat exchange equipment with a strong market position. The investor started buying shares at around $8, seeing potential for earnings to reach $1.50 in 2015, which could lead to a significant return if the stock trades at a 10x multiple.
Did it work?
worked
confidence: high
The long thesis on Modine at ~$8 implied a target of roughly $15 (10x projected $1.50 earnings by 2015). With 139 months elapsed — far beyond the stated horizon — the stock returned +2120%, reaching levels many multiples above the implied target. The thesis not only played out but was dramatically exceeded, decisively confirming the investor's view.