Hertz Global Holdings, Inc.
Thesis
We recommend investors buy Hertz stock with a 12-month target share price of $36, representing ~52% upside. The investment thesis includes the underestimation of the impact of Hertz's merger with Dollar Thrifty, the ability to counter falling used car prices, strong growth opportunities in the U.S., and the potential value unlocked by divesting the non-core Equipment Rental segment.
Did it work?
The long thesis called for a 12-month target of $36 (~52% upside), but instead the stock declined 91% over the 160 months since the pitch. Far from reaching the target, Hertz suffered a catastrophic loss of value — including its 2020 Chapter 11 bankruptcy that wiped out existing shareholders — invalidating every pillar of the thesis (merger synergies, used-car price management, growth, and Equipment divestiture value). The outcome is decisively negative regardless of the extended horizon.