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P Pitch Archive Stock pitches across investing competitions
← Spring 2013

Dollar Tree, Inc.

DLTR pitch long Jeremy Colvin, Eric Lai, Akhil Subramanian

Thesis

We recommend a BUY on Dollar Tree (DLTR) shares with a target price of $64.75, representing ~40% upside to today’s price of $45.99. DLTR is uniquely positioned as the only dollar store selling all items for $1, allowing it to maximize customer value and maintain high margins despite proximity to competitors like Wal-Mart. The company has significant growth potential with plans for more stores and can unlock additional value through a leveraged recapitalization.

Did it work?

worked confidence: high

The long thesis on Dollar Tree decisively played out: the stock returned +178.9% over 160 months, far exceeding the stated target of $64.75 (~40% upside from $45.99), implying a price around $128. The thesis's growth drivers — store expansion and durable value positioning against larger competitors — were validated by sustained outperformance well beyond the target. With the full horizon long elapsed and the target surpassed by a wide margin, this is a clear success.