Fall 2013

The 9.75% senior guaranteed 2020 USD notes of Homex are expected to provide a strong return due to their guaranteed nature and the company's potential for recovery in the housing market.

Wabash National shares are considered a strong investment due to their market position and growth potential in the transportation and logistics sector.

Active Network shares are viewed positively because of their innovative solutions in event management and the growing demand for such services.

Desarrolladora Homex is focusing on cash flow generation by selling non-core assets and has sufficient liquidity through 2013 even in a downside scenario. The company is positioned to benefit from government infrastructure spending and has a strong relationship with the new president, which should lead to high-ROIC infrastructure deals. Additionally, the vertical building model and macroeconomic tailwinds in Mexico support growth prospects.

Wabash National Corporation is positioned to benefit from a recovering trailer market as the average trailer age is at record levels, leading to increased demand for new trailers. Regulatory pressures and a positive environment for truckers further support growth, while diversification efforts have stabilized cash flows and created synergies. The company has a target price of $14.50, representing a 40% return over one year.

Wabash National Corporation is positioned for profitability improvement as it raises prices and sees returning customers. The company is expected to expand its margins in the Commercial Truck segment and benefit from lower aluminum prices. The stock is undervalued based on future trailer order volumes, with a projected EPS of $2.50 in 2017 and a price target of $14.50.

Active Network, Inc. has significant upside potential due to reduced R&D spending and improved management following the departure of its founders. The company is expected to see EBITDA expansion and multiple expansion to align with peers, supported by its leading market position and sticky customer contracts.

Active Network, Inc. is substantially undervalued against its peers despite having higher quality earnings, as evidenced by its higher EBITDA margin of 7% compared to the peer average of 2.9%. The company is expected to see EBITDA expansion and improved management, which will catalyze stock appreciation. A reduction in R&D expenses following the implementation of cloud-based Active-Works is projected to result in a 23-33% increase in EBITDA.

Guy Spier mentions that he had a great investment in Duff & Phelps, which is a credit rating agency, and it yielded a 7X return over three to four years, indicating it was a wonderful investment opportunity.

Reciprocal Patent Exchange is an interesting business that pools resources to reduce legal risks associated with patents. They generate significant cash flow and have a unique model that could appeal to many companies facing patent litigation.

Fiat has the potential to become a global automobile brand, leveraging its partnership with Chrysler to allocate production costs and resources more effectively across the globe. This strategic advantage could lead to significant improvements in its business over the next few years.

VeriSign is considered a beautiful business, although it may not be cheap. The investor feels that it could fit within their circle of competence, indicating a potential interest in the company despite its high valuation.

BUY Homex 9.75% Senior 2020 Notes. Even under aggressive downside scenarios, making money requires only a 5% probability that the notes remain performing. I estimate this probability as at least 30% due to HMX’s market leadership, strong relationships with banks, and the favorable macroeconomic outlook in Mexico.

American Greetings creates tremendous value for their customers despite flat industry demand trends. They maintain strong relationships with retail partners and have long-term contracts that support their business model.