Desarrolladora Homex
Thesis
Desarrolladora Homex is focusing on cash flow generation by selling non-core assets and has sufficient liquidity through 2013 even in a downside scenario. The company is positioned to benefit from government infrastructure spending and has a strong relationship with the new president, which should lead to high-ROIC infrastructure deals. Additionally, the vertical building model and macroeconomic tailwinds in Mexico support growth prospects.
Did it work?
No price data is available, but the thesis's core pillars were decisively invalidated by subsequent events: Mexico's 2013 housing policy overhaul crushed the homebuilder sector, Homex's promised liquidity durability and high-ROIC government-backed deals never materialized, and the company was later delisted from the NYSE (2017) after regulators found massive revenue overstatements, eventually entering insolvency proceedings. The long thesis on cash flow, liquidity, and government-relationship-driven growth clearly did not play out. Confidence is low only because price performance data is absent.