Spring 2014

Issue 21 · analyzed

35 ideas

pitch long failed
-31.2%
OMI Orion Marine Group, Inc.
null

Orion Marine is positioned to benefit from increased demand for marine construction due to the need for deeper ports in the U.S. and the upcoming projects from the Army Corps of Engineers. The stock is currently trading …

position long
gold miners
null

The investors have identified value in gold miners, which have been significantly discounted due to the decline in gold prices. They bought a diversified basket of gold mining stocks at the end of the year, believing the…

pitch long worked
+237.4%
ALLE Allegion plc
2014 Pershing Square Challenge

We recommend investors buy Allegion equity with a base case price target of $75, representing ~50% upside from the current share price. The investment thesis is supported by expected accelerating topline growth from a re…

pitch short
CVC Cablevision Systems Corporation
2014 Pershing Square Challenge

We recommend shorting Cablevision (CVC) with a potential return of +52%. The investment thesis is based on the real and accelerating threat from Verizon FiOS, which is expected to lead to significant subscriber losses fo…

pitch long failed
-20.5%
CCL Carnival Corporation
2014 Pershing Square Challenge

We recommend a long position in Carnival Corp. (CCL) with a two-year target price of ~$57, representing ~53% upside from the 4/17/14 share price of $37.32. The stock is trading at a significant discount to its intrinsic …

pitch long worked
+459.0%
CLH Clean Harbors, Inc.
2014 Pershing Square Challenge

We recommend investors buy Clean Harbors, Inc. (CLH) stock with a 12-18-month target share price of $85-95, representing ~50-70% upside. The investment thesis is based on the fair valuation of the core hazardous waste ma…

pitch long/short failed
-73.5%
NPSNY Naspers Limited
2014 Pershing Square Challenge

Naspers is undervalued as the market is attributing a negative value to its unlisted assets while its publicly traded interests are worth significantly more than its market cap. The investment thesis suggests buying Nasp…

position long
COT Cott Corporation

Cott Corporation is the largest manufacturer of private label beverages in the world, and despite a troubled past, recent management changes and a return to its core strategy have led to a significant recovery in its sto…

position long worked
+250.7%
DOV Dover Industries

Dover became incredibly interesting after a selloff, with a fair value estimated between $80 and $90. The spin-off of Knowles is expected to add significant value, and the company has a strong business model providing ac…

position long inconclusive
KN Knowles Corporation

Knowles is seen as an orphaned spin-off with a strong business in acoustic systems for mobile devices. The company is expected to improve margins significantly as it consolidates facilities and benefits from increasing a…

position long failed
-51.1%
RYN Rayonier Inc.

Rayonier's upcoming spin-off of its specialty chemical business is expected to unlock significant value, with the spin-off potentially valued at $25 to $35 per share. The parent company is also expected to have a strong …

position long inconclusive
RYAM Rayonier Advanced Materials

The spin-off of Rayonier's specialty chemical business is expected to be undervalued due to its initial leverage and the perception of its business. However, it has high cash flow potential and should de-lever quickly, m…

position long inconclusive
LMCA Liberty Media Corporation

Liberty Media is undergoing multiple spin-offs that are expected to unlock value across its disparate businesses, including the creation of a tracking stock for Liberty Broadband, which is seen as a positive development.

position long
LINTA Liberty Interactive Corporation

The spin-off of Liberty Interactive into two new entities is expected to unlock value, particularly for QVC, which is viewed as an underappreciated business.

position long
LVNTA Liberty Ventures

Liberty Ventures is essentially a publicly traded hedge fund that is expected to unlock value through its spin-off, which could be beneficial for investors.

position long
RUS Russia

Philippe Jabre mentioned that he invested 10% of his fund in Russia after a collapse in valuations, indicating that he believes the current prices reflect the negative sentiment and that there is potential for recovery o…

position long worked
+1375.9%
JP JP Morgan Chase & Co.

In 2009, Jabre noted that he bought US banks, including JP Morgan, after hearing positive comments from the CEOs about their profitability, which signaled a buying opportunity as the market was overly pessimistic about t…

position long worked
+259.4%
C Citigroup Inc.

Similar to his investment in JP Morgan, Jabre bought Citigroup in 2009 after hearing the CEO's positive outlook on the bank's financial health, which indicated a significant opportunity as the market had a negative view …

position long worked
+120.7%
EUFN iShares MSCI Europe Financials ETF

Jabre invested in European financials ETFs when they were trading at 60% of book value, anticipating a recovery supported by strong actions from the ECB, which ultimately led to a significant increase in value.

position long
NIKKEI Nikkei 225

The Japanese government is implementing policies that could lead to significant market growth, with potential for the Nikkei to rise to 16,000-18,000 if reforms such as corporate tax cuts and labor liberalization are suc…

position long inconclusive
null China

Despite many macro funds being short on Chinese shares, if the Chinese authorities stimulate the economy, there is potential for the Chinese market to increase by another 10%.

position long inconclusive
+98.4%
JEC Jacobs Engineering Group Inc.

Jacobs Engineering is well-positioned to benefit from significant capital spending in the chemical industry, driven by lower natural gas prices and structural shifts in production. The company is considered one of the be…

position long inconclusive
ORN Orion Marine Group, Inc.

Orion Marine specializes in marine construction and dredging, and while the company faced challenges post-2008-09 due to declining revenues and intense competition, it is expected to recover as the industry stabilizes. T…

position long inconclusive
ALLE Allegion, Plc.

Allegion is a strong investment due to its solid fundamentals and position in the security products market, which is expected to grow as demand for safety and security increases globally.

position short
CVC Cablevision Systems Corporation

The investor believes that Cablevision Systems Corporation is overvalued and expects its share price to decline.

pitch long inconclusive
CLH Clean Harbors, Inc.

Clean Harbors is poised for significant earnings growth due to the introduction of a new incinerator and $200 million in growth capital expenditures expected to generate a 20% return on invested capital. This growth, com…

position long inconclusive
NPN Naspers Limited

Naspers is considered a long position due to its strong market position and growth potential in the digital and e-commerce sectors.

pitch long inconclusive
ARO Aeropostale, Inc.
null

Aeropostale is primarily a teen retailer facing difficulties in the current market. The turnaround they are attempting would be better accomplished in a private setting, either under a financial sponsor or as part of a l…

position long inconclusive
STRZA Starz

Starz was incredibly cheap and trading at a steep discount to its peers post-spin. The investment more than doubled in just over a year and a half.

position long
LTRPA Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings

Liberty Ventures will spin off Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings, which will hold a significant economic and voting stake in TripAdvisor, potentially simplifying the structure and creating value.

position long inconclusive
TRIP TripAdvisor, Inc.

TripAdvisor is part of the spin-off from Liberty Ventures, which is expected to simplify the structure and create value as the market recognizes the underlying assets.

pitch long worked
+1831.3%
XPO XPO Logistics
Moon Lee Prize Competition

Stephen Lieu pitched XPO Logistics as a deep-value opportunity during the Moon Lee Prize Competition, highlighting its potential for significant upside.

pitch long worked
+112.6%
WRLD World Acceptance Corporation
Moon Lee Prize Competition

Patrick Stadelhofer pitched World Acceptance Corporation, identifying it as a compelling investment opportunity during the Moon Lee Prize Competition.

pitch long inconclusive
P Pandora Media, Inc.
Moon Lee Prize Competition

Akhil Subramanian pitched Pandora as a valuable investment opportunity during the Moon Lee Prize Competition, focusing on its growth potential.

pitch long worked
+164.6%
POST Post Holdings, Inc.
Moon Lee Prize Competition

Jackson Thies pitched Post Holdings as a strong investment opportunity during the Moon Lee Prize Competition, emphasizing its market position and growth prospects.