Dover Industries
Thesis
Dover became incredibly interesting after a selloff, with a fair value estimated between $80 and $90. The spin-off of Knowles is expected to add significant value, and the company has a strong business model providing acoustic systems for various devices.
Did it work?
The long thesis targeted a revaluation of Dover toward a fair value of $80-$90, with the Knowles spin-off as a value-adding catalyst. The stock returned +231.1%, decisively surpassing the stated fair value range, and the Knowles spin-off did occur (completed in 2014), confirming the thesis's key catalyst. Note the thesis slightly conflates Dover with Knowles (the acoustic systems business spun off from Dover), but the directional call on Dover was overwhelmingly validated by the price performance.