Allegion plc
Thesis
We recommend investors buy Allegion equity with a base case price target of $75, representing ~50% upside from the current share price. The investment thesis is supported by expected accelerating topline growth from a rebound in non-residential construction spending, significant margin improvement opportunities in Europe, effective tax optimization strategies due to Irish domiciling, and strong free cash flow generation that can be used for buybacks and M&A.
Did it work?
The long thesis called for ~50% upside to a $75 base-case target (implying an entry near $50); 148 months later the stock is up 215.2%, putting it around $157 — more than double the stated target. The thesis drivers (non-residential construction recovery, margin expansion, tax optimization, and FCF-funded buybacks/M&A) broadly played out as Allegion compounded strongly over the period. With well over any reasonable target horizon elapsed and the price target decisively exceeded, the thesis clearly worked.