Clean Harbors, Inc.
Thesis
We recommend investors buy Clean Harbors, Inc. (CLH) stock with a 12-18-month target share price of $85-95, representing ~50-70% upside. The investment thesis is based on the fair valuation of the core hazardous waste management business, which more than covers the current share price, and the mispricing of shares due to transitory issues. Additionally, divesting non-core assets will generate cash for buybacks and refocus management on the core business.
Did it work?
The long thesis on Clean Harbors decisively played out: the stock returned +461.7% over 148 months, far exceeding the stated 12-18 month target of $85-95 (~50-70% upside). While the horizon elapsed was much longer than the pitch's stated timeframe, the direction was correct and the magnitude of gains vastly surpassed the target, confirming the thesis that the core hazardous waste business was undervalued and divestitures/buybacks would unlock value.