Carnival Corporation
CCL
pitch
long
Juliana Bogoricin, Charles Buaron, Ben Isaac
Thesis
We recommend a long position in Carnival Corp. (CCL) with a two-year target price of ~$57, representing ~53% upside from the 4/17/14 share price of $37.32. The stock is trading at a significant discount to its intrinsic value due to one-time setbacks, and we expect a reversion to positive industry trends and operational improvements under a new CEO to drive substantial margin upside.
Did it work?
failed
confidence: high
The long thesis for Carnival Corp. anticipated a significant price increase to ~$57 within two years, but after 148 months, the stock has actually declined by 20.5%. This performance is contrary to the expected reversion to positive trends and operational improvements, indicating that the thesis did not materialize as projected.
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