Fall 2015

Issue 25 · analyzed

23 ideas

pitch long inconclusive
ELLI Ellie Mae, Inc.

Ellie Mae is positioned to become the industry standard in the mortgage sector by providing a Software as a Service solution that streamlines the mortgage filing process. With a growing subscriber base and increasing rev…

pitch short failed
+68.8%
FTK Flotek Industries, Inc.
null

Flotek Industries produces surfactants used in fracking, which initially seemed promising for increasing oil extraction. However, upon further diligence, it became clear that the U.S. onshore drilling market is evolving …

position long failed
-36.6%
601006 Daqin Railway
null

Daqin Railway is the largest cargo railroad in the world and has recently gained pricing flexibility from the NDRC, allowing it to increase prices for the first time in years. With a strong EBITDA margin and a structural…

position long worked
+532.2%
BLDR Builders FirstSource, Inc.

The U.S. housing market has disappointed investors, but signs of recovery are emerging, including improved labor markets and accessible financing. Builders FirstSource, as a lumber distributor, is well-positioned due to …

position short inconclusive
HP Helmerich & Payne, Inc.

Helmerich & Payne is facing a significant decline in utilization in the oil services sector, which is expected to lead to a price-down despite market excitement about a recovery. The oversupplied machinery market suggest…

pitch long
RNF Rentech Nitrogen Partners LP
CSIMA Investment Ideas Club

Rentech Nitrogen Partners LP is positioned to benefit from favorable market conditions in the nitrogen fertilizer sector, making it an attractive long investment. The paired trade strategy suggests that while Rentech is …

pitch short inconclusive
UAN CVR Partners
CSIMA Investment Ideas Club

CVR Partners is facing headwinds in the nitrogen fertilizer market, which could lead to underperformance compared to its peers. This makes it a suitable candidate for a short position in the paired trade strategy with Re…

pitch short inconclusive
LVS Las Vegas Sands Corp.
CSIMA Investment Ideas Club

Las Vegas Sands is likely to face challenges due to market saturation and increased competition in the gaming sector, making it a suitable candidate for a short position. The expected decline in revenue growth supports t…

position long inconclusive
AAPL Apple Inc.

After previously exiting our position in Apple due to concerns about slowing smartphone adoption and competitive pressures, we have re-entered the stock. We believe that Apple's value is being underestimated, particularl…

pitch long
LNKD LinkedIn Corporation

We identified LinkedIn as a strong investment due to its significant market penetration potential and strong competitive advantages in the talent management space. Our analysis suggested an earnings power of $8 per share…

position long inconclusive
ELLI Ellie Mae, Inc.

Ellie Mae is positioned to capture a significant market share among larger mortgage companies that have not yet adopted their systems. With current margins around 20%, there is potential for sales to double or triple, le…

position long inconclusive
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc.

Amazon is positioned to dominate both e-commerce and the public cloud, with significant growth potential as global companies increasingly adopt AWS. The FAA's recent $100 million annual deal with Amazon highlights the sc…

position long inconclusive
NTES NetEase, Inc.

NetEase has a strong position in the mobile gaming market, with its recent launch of 'Fantasy Westward Journey Mobile' expected to generate around $1 billion in revenue. This is significant given the company's total reve…

position long inconclusive
EA Electronic Arts Inc.

Electronic Arts has effectively leveraged its strong intellectual property, particularly with franchises like FIFA and NFL Ultimate Team, to capitalize on the lucrative console market and the emerging mobile gaming oppor…

pitch long/short
+214.3%
RNF Rentech Nitrogen Partners, L.P.
Merger Arbitrage with Special Situation Spin-Off

By going long Rentech Nitrogen (RNF) shares and shorting CVR Partners (UAN) shares, investors can capitalize on the arbitrage opportunity created by RNF's sale to UAN. The market undervalues RNF's shares at $12.00, faili…

pitch long inconclusive
TEN Tenneco Inc.

Tenneco's recent share price decline is attributed to concerns over a slowdown in China and disruptions at a major customer, Volkswagen. However, the company is well-positioned to benefit from increasing global automotiv…

position long inconclusive
UAN CVR Partners, LP

CVR Partners is acquiring Rentech Nitrogen's facility, which diversifies its input costs and enhances its operational efficiency, making it a compelling investment opportunity.

pitch long failed
-15.1%
TEN Tenneco Inc.
null

Tenneco is positioned to benefit from increasingly stringent emissions standards and enforcement, which will drive demand for its emissions reduction products. The company has a strong market share and is expected to gro…

pitch short failed
+3.4%
LVS Las Vegas Sands Corp.
null

Las Vegas Sands is facing significant headwinds due to a slowing Chinese economy, a corruption crackdown affecting spending, and oversupply in the gaming industry. The consensus is overly optimistic about recovery, creat…

pitch short inconclusive
LVS Las Vegas Sands Corp.
null

Las Vegas Sands is facing significant headwinds due to declining revenues in Macau and increased competition from new casinos. The company's strategy to diversify into non-gaming revenues may not be sufficient to offset …

position long inconclusive
CRE China Resources Enterprise, Limited

China Resources Enterprise owns 50% of CR Snow, the largest beer company in the world, and is expected to improve EBITDA margins significantly over the next five years due to industry consolidation and operational improv…

position long
Daqin Daqin Railway Company Limited

Daqin is a monopoly rail infrastructure company that benefits from the ongoing demand for coal transportation in China. The company is expected to maintain strong volumes and profitability despite broader economic uncert…

position long inconclusive
OAK Oaktree Capital Group, LLC

GEM has held a position in Oaktree Capital since acquiring shares from Castle Point's stake. They believe in the business model and have a strong understanding of the financial sector, which makes it a favorable investme…