Las Vegas Sands Corp.
Thesis
Las Vegas Sands is facing significant headwinds due to a slowing Chinese economy, a corruption crackdown affecting spending, and oversupply in the gaming industry. The consensus is overly optimistic about recovery, creating an attractive short opportunity with a target price of $30, representing a ~35% downside from current levels.
Did it work?
The thesis catalysts largely materialized — Macau's corruption crackdown and China's slowdown triggered a severe gaming downturn, and LVS sold off sharply in the years following the pitch, approaching the $30 target. However, the stock subsequently recovered, and over the full 131 months it returned +5.1%, the opposite direction of the short and far short of the stated ~35% downside. The thesis partially played out through the interim drawdown and confirmed catalysts, but as a held position the short ultimately did not deliver.