Daqin Railway

601006 position long Ed Bosek

Thesis

Daqin Railway is the largest cargo railroad in the world and has recently gained pricing flexibility from the NDRC, allowing it to increase prices for the first time in years. With a strong EBITDA margin and a structural shortage of rail capacity in China, Daqin is well-positioned to benefit from further price hikes, making it an attractive long-term investment.

Did it work?

failed confidence: high

The thesis for Daqin Railway was based on the expectation of increased pricing flexibility and benefits from a structural shortage in rail capacity. However, the stock has declined by 35.6% over the past 30 months, indicating that the anticipated positive developments did not materialize as expected, leading to a failure of the investment thesis.

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