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Ellie Mae, Inc.

ELLI position long Alex Sacerdote

Thesis

Ellie Mae is positioned to capture a significant market share among larger mortgage companies that have not yet adopted their systems. With current margins around 20%, there is potential for sales to double or triple, leading to much higher operating margins.

Did it work?

inconclusive confidence: low

No price performance or pitch date is provided, so the return cannot be weighed against the long thesis. While Ellie Mae subsequently grew revenue several-fold and was ultimately taken private at a substantial premium (Thoma Bravo, 2019) — directionally consistent with the market-share capture and margin-expansion thesis — without knowing when the pitch was made, I cannot confirm whether the sales doubling/tripling and margin outcomes occurred within the thesis's own window. The verdict is therefore inconclusive.