Fall 2010

Issue 10 · analyzed

14 ideas

position long inconclusive
USPH U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.

U.S. Physical Therapy is well-positioned in the healthcare sector, benefiting from the increasing demand for physical therapy services as the population ages and seeks rehabilitation services.

position long inconclusive
CLGX CoreLogic, Inc.

CoreLogic provides essential data and analytics for the real estate and mortgage industries, which positions it well to capitalize on the recovery of the housing market and increased demand for its services.

position long worked
+812.2%
AON Aon Corporation

Aon is an insurance brokerage firm with about 65% of its revenue coming from outside the US. The company is expected to benefit from increased premiums in an inflationary environment, and even without inflation, the stoc…

position long inconclusive
AGCO AGCO Corporation

AGCO is a farm equipment manufacturer that has been generating significant free cash flow. The company is viewed positively due to its operational improvements and potential benefits from inflation, making it a solid inv…

pitch long worked
+148.5%
RJET Republic Airways Holdings, Inc.
null

Republic Airlines is a low-cost operator trading at 86% of tangible book value, with an estimated earnings power of $1.60, implying a valuation of 5.4x potential earnings. The company is expected to benefit from industry…

position long
AUY Yamana Gold Inc.
null

Yamana Gold is trading at a 25% premium to book value but still presents an attractive investment opportunity due to its significant organic growth potential and strong balance sheet, with earnings power estimated at $1.…

position long worked
+2230.1%
DDS Dillard's, Inc.
null

Dillard's has tremendous hidden real estate value, with a breakup value estimated at $52 per share compared to its current price of around $27. The company is undergoing a fundamental turnaround, which, combined with its…

pitch long inconclusive
USPH U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.
null

U.S. Physical Therapy is poised to benefit from secular demand growth for physical therapy services, with attractive unit economics and solid cash flow. The company has opportunities for market share growth through targe…

pitch long worked
+330.8%
USPH U.S. Physical Therapy
null

U.S. Physical Therapy is positioned to drive operational efficiencies and capture market share through strategic acquisitions of small operators in a fragmented market. The company is expected to grow its adjusted free c…

pitch long worked
+57.6%
CLGX CoreLogic, Inc.
null

CoreLogic is a high ROIC business services and data analytics company with leading niche market share that is poised to benefit from long-term secular trends in the mortgage and financial industry. The company has a stro…

position long inconclusive
AAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc.

We bought AAP's shares when we started the fund and sold recently, with a good realized return.

position long inconclusive
PAYX Paychex, Inc.

Paychex is a very interesting business with very high barriers to entry, customer captivity, and high return over invested capital; however, we wouldn’t feel comfortable knowing when to short a business like that.

position short worked
-600.8%
CSX CSX Corporation

In May 2008, we were short CSX because the market was implying that the ROIC would be 15% in perpetuity, which we believed was unrealistic given the economic conditions and competition from trucking.

position short failed
+62.8%
USG USG Corporation

When USG was trading at $90 in 2006, it was implied that there would be a soft landing in the housing market and the return over invested capital for USG would remain around 30%, which we considered a mathematical imposs…