USG Corporation
Thesis
When USG was trading at $90 in 2006, it was implied that there would be a soft landing in the housing market and the return over invested capital for USG would remain around 30%, which we considered a mathematical impossibility.
Did it work?
The thesis's core prediction was decisively validated: housing did not soft-land, USG's returns on capital collapsed, and the stock suffered a catastrophic drawdown (falling roughly 90% from its 2006-07 levels during 2008-09), rewarding the short dramatically in the interim. However, over the full ~20.6 years since the pitch, USG shares are up 62.2%, meaning a short held to the end lost money as the stock eventually recovered and the company was ultimately taken out at a premium. The fundamental call played out, but the ultimate price outcome ran against the short position, so the pitch only partially worked.