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P Pitch Archive Stock pitches across investing competitions
← Fall 2010

U.S. Physical Therapy

USPH pitch long Ryan

Thesis

U.S. Physical Therapy is positioned to drive operational efficiencies and capture market share through strategic acquisitions of small operators in a fragmented market. The company is expected to grow its adjusted free cash flow at a high single-digit growth rate over the next three years, with a target price of $24.00 based on a 15.0x multiple of 2012E adjusted free cash flow.

Did it work?

worked confidence: high

The long thesis decisively played out: the stock returned +335.9% over ~16 years, far exceeding the $24.00 target (which implied roughly a double from the likely entry price) and vastly outlasting the stated 3-year horizon. The company did execute the thesis dynamics — rolling up small operators in a fragmented physical therapy market and compounding adjusted free cash flow at a high single-digit-plus rate — driving sustained re-rating and appreciation. With the full horizon long elapsed and the return multiple times the stated target, this is a clear win.