Spring 2012

Issue 15 · analyzed

42 ideas

pitch long worked
+42.6%
AVP Avon Products, Inc.
Pershing Square Challenge

At $20 per share, Avon common stock represents an opportunity to buy an $11 billion dollar iconic global beauty products company near its historical trough value. The company has strong market shares in emerging markets …

position long inconclusive
HMC Honda Motor Co., Ltd.

The investor has been long Honda for a number of years, indicating confidence in its performance relative to competitors.

position long inconclusive
TM Toyota Motor Corporation

The investor has been long Toyota for a number of years, suggesting a belief in its stability and growth compared to other automakers.

position short inconclusive
F Ford Motor Company

The investor is short Ford, indicating a belief that the company may underperform compared to its peers.

position short inconclusive
GM General Motors Company

The investor is short GM, suggesting a negative outlook on its performance relative to other automotive companies.

position short
Chinese property companies

The investor is short Chinese property companies, indicating a belief in their declining value and potential risks in the sector.

position long
Macau casinos

The investor is long Macau casinos, suggesting confidence in their recovery and growth potential in the gaming industry.

position short inconclusive
EK Eastman Kodak Company

Kodak is cited as a historical example of a value trap, where investors misjudged its declining business model and cash flow management.

position long
JOY Joy Global Inc.

Joy Global is a leading manufacturer of coal-mining and surface mining equipment, which is essential as coal continues to provide a significant portion of electricity generation in the U.S. Despite current market weaknes…

position long inconclusive
SJM The J.M. Smucker Company

Smuckers is a resilient company that performs well even in challenging economic conditions, making it a strong candidate for investment during downturns. The company was acquired at a low valuation of 6-7x EBIT while sti…

position long inconclusive
TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.

Thermo Fisher Scientific is another company that has shown resilience in tough economic times, making it a worthwhile investment. Similar to Smuckers, it was acquired at a low valuation while still growing, indicating po…

pitch long inconclusive
OI Owens-Illinois, Inc.
null

The market is currently undervaluing Owens-Illinois due to a focus on short-term earnings rather than its long-term earnings potential. The company is expected to earn $3.00 per share in 2012 and $3.40 the following year…

position long inconclusive
AAPL Apple Inc.
null

Apple is currently trading at 12x earnings, which is attractive given its strong product lineup and significant cash reserves. The anticipated release of the Apple television set this year adds to the company's growth po…

position long failed
-30.9%
AAPL Apple Inc.

Julian Robertson believes Apple is the world's cheapest stock, suggesting that if it had existed in the 1970s, it would be trading at five times its current value. He is considering shifting his TIPS into Apple due to it…

position long inconclusive
GOOGL Alphabet Inc.

Julian Robertson is considering shifting his TIPS into something like Google, indicating a belief in its growth potential alongside Apple.

position long inconclusive
WX WuXi AppTec Co., Ltd.

Julian Robertson loves WuXi, a Chinese employment agency for PhDs in the drug industry, as it disintermediates the pharmaceutical-focused PhD market and is experiencing earnings growth of about 20% a year while selling a…

pitch long worked
+121.6%
IR Ingersoll-Rand plc
2012 Pershing Square Capital Challenge

We recommend a long position in Ingersoll Rand stock with a target price of $58.00, representing a ~43% upside from the current share price of $40.61. The stock has positive operational and cyclical catalysts expected ov…

pitch long
LM Legg Mason Inc.
2012 Pershing Square Capital Challenge

The common stock of Legg Mason offers a compelling long opportunity as the market is discounting the past more than the future. With significant tax credits valued at $6.50 per share, LM trades at less than 5x EV/EBITDA …

pitch long worked
+206.7%
HRB H&R Block, Inc.
2012 Pershing Square Capital Challenge

H&R Block is an attractive investment trading at 11x earnings with an 11% free cash flow yield. Misunderstandings about its core business and excessive fears regarding liabilities from a discontinued subsidiary create a …

position short
BWN Baldwin-United Corporation

I recommended a short position in Baldwin-United at $24 based on language in the 10-K and 10-Qs, uneconomic annuities, leverage issues and a host of other concerns. The stock promptly doubled on me, but later the state i…

position short inconclusive
IR Integrated Resources, Inc.

I was particularly focused on Integrated Resources which was playing unbelievable accounting games and financing itself with junk debt issued at 14%. The company was overpaying for office buildings and syndicating their …

position short
Natural Gas Industry

Jim Chanos is currently short the natural gas industry in the U.S. due to a technological innovation in fracking that has led to a significant oversupply, driving prices down to $2 per MCF. Many companies in this sector …

position short
Coal Industry

Chanos believes that the coal industry is negatively impacted by the rise of natural gas, which is now half the price of coal. As utilities shift from coal to natural gas, the coal industry is expected to face significan…

position
For-Profit Education

Chanos mentions for-profit education as an area of interest, implying that there may be investment opportunities or challenges worth discussing, although he does not provide a specific position or rationale.

position long inconclusive
NSRGY Nestlé S.A.

Nestlé represents a great opportunity for patient investors due to its ability to reinvest in markets like Africa, which may not provide immediate returns but have significant long-term potential. The company's strong br…

position long inconclusive
UL Unilever PLC

Unilever is highlighted for its ability to operate in a socially responsible manner while also reducing costs, which can enhance efficiency and profitability. The company's commitment to sustainability and responsible re…

pitch short inconclusive
null null
null

The interview discusses the flawed business model of the for-profit education sector, suggesting that high student debt levels and poor job outcomes will lead to increased defaults and a breakdown of the business model. …

position long worked
+4654.0%
MA MasterCard Incorporated

MasterCard is a preferred investment due to its lower valuation at 12x forward earnings compared to its growth potential. The company has significant international exposure and a new CEO with a strong global background, …

position long inconclusive
NESTLE Nestlé S.A.

Nestlé has substantial growth opportunities in emerging markets where it currently has limited presence. The company's historical performance shows strong returns, and it can continue to grow by investing in these new ma…

position long inconclusive
MLM Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.

Tom Russo believes that Martin Marietta has a strong business model that has been affected by the post-2008 economic environment, particularly in infrastructure and construction. Despite current challenges, he sees poten…

position long inconclusive
BF.B Brown-Forman Corporation

Brown-Forman is a family-controlled company with a strong core business that has been undervalued due to misconceptions about its whiskey business. The company has successfully expanded its international presence, partic…

position long inconclusive
SSP E.W. Scripps Company

E.W. Scripps has a history of investing in long-term growth opportunities, such as the development of Scripps Network Interactive, which has proven successful despite initial losses. The company's management has shown a …

position short inconclusive
FMCC Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac)

Charlie Munger expressed discomfort with owning Freddie Mac due to concerns about management's integrity and the company's shift towards accumulating mortgages instead of securitizing them. He believes that the managemen…

position long inconclusive
KHC Kraft Heinz Company

Kraft has valuable products like Chrystal Light, but faces significant pressure on its core businesses due to private label competition. The company is attempting to expand offshore and diversify its operations, which co…

position long inconclusive
PEP PepsiCo, Inc.

While I am intrigued by Pepsi, I have avoided owning it due to concerns about the carbonated drinks industry's challenges with sugary products. However, a potential spin-off of Frito-Lay could present an interesting inve…

position long inconclusive
null Mars, Incorporated

If Mars were publicly traded, it would be an interesting investment due to its diverse businesses in pet food and confectionery. However, the company has not been as well run recently, which raises concerns about its pot…

position long inconclusive
null Danone S.A.

I appreciate Danone's entrepreneurial approach in the yogurt category, but it has generally been more expensive than Nestle. The company's future seems more dependent on its CEO's personality compared to Nestle's stable …

position long inconclusive
OI Owens-Illinois, Inc.

Owens-Illinois is the largest maker of glass bottles in the world, with a strong market position and stable demand for glass packaging. The company has a solid EBITDA margin and pricing power, making it a favorable inves…

position long worked
+381.3%
ORCL Oracle Corporation

Oracle is an excellent business that is currently out of favor with the market. The company has evolved its revenue model to include a significant recurring revenue stream from Update & Support fees, which has grown subs…

position long inconclusive
+117.1%
KO The Coca-Cola Company

Coca-Cola is one of the greatest businesses in the world, epitomizing sustainable competitive advantage. The stock was trading in the low $40s during late 2008 and early 2009, presenting a considerable discount to its in…

position long inconclusive
WDFC WD-40 Company

WD-40 operates an asset-light business model with high revenue and EBIT per employee, allowing it to maintain strong profit margins and manage costs effectively. The company has a solid dividend payout ratio and is activ…

position long inconclusive
CL Colgate-Palmolive Company

Colgate was identified as a strong business that presented an attractive buying opportunity after a recent sell-off. The investor emphasizes the importance of monitoring quality companies for potential entry points, sugg…