Eastman Kodak Company
Thesis
Kodak is cited as a historical example of a value trap, where investors misjudged its declining business model and cash flow management.
Did it work?
worked
confidence: low
The thesis's core claim — that Kodak was a value trap with a structurally declining business model and deteriorating cash flows — is historically validated: Kodak's film business collapsed, it failed to monetize the digital transition it pioneered, filed Chapter 11 in 2012, and equity holders were largely wiped out, which is precisely the value-trap dynamic the short thesis describes. However, with no price performance data and an unknown pitch date, the actual return on the short position from the pitch date cannot be verified, so confidence must remain low.