Apple Inc.
Thesis
Apple is currently trading at 12x earnings, which is attractive given its strong product lineup and significant cash reserves. The anticipated release of the Apple television set this year adds to the company's growth potential, making it a solid long-term investment.
Did it work?
partial
confidence: low
The valuation premise of the thesis was sound — Apple did trade around 12x earnings with a large cash pile, and the company went on to thrive as a long-term investment. However, the thesis's key near-term catalyst, the anticipated Apple television set launch 'this year,' never materialized, as Apple never released a full television set. With no price performance data and unknown elapsed time, the return component cannot be verified, so the thesis only partially played out.