Fall 2019

Issue 37 · analyzed

40 ideas

position long inconclusive
null IPSCO

Mohnish Pabrai discussed his views on IPSCO, indicating a positive outlook on the company.

position long inconclusive
null GrafTech

Mohnish Pabrai mentioned GrafTech, suggesting he sees potential value in the stock.

position long inconclusive
null DJCO

Matthew Peterson discussed his recent investment in DJCO, highlighting it as a favorable opportunity based on his investment criteria.

pitch long worked
+154.0%
ARMK Aramark
2019 Pershing Square Challenge

David Hao, Eric Niu, and Freda Zhuo recommended a long position on Aramark, highlighting its strong market position and growth potential in the food services sector.

pitch long worked
+182.7%
USFD US Foods, Inc.
2019 Pershing Square Challenge

Edgardo Guttierez, Yuri Rettore, and Rodolfo Zeidler recommended investing in US Foods, Inc., emphasizing its competitive advantages and favorable market trends.

pitch long inconclusive
ARMK Aramark
null

Aramark is undervalued due to market sentiment, with significant upside potential in its core catering and uniform businesses. The company has opportunities for operational improvements and activist involvement could acc…

pitch long worked
+83.0%
ARMK Aramark
2019 Pershing Square Challenge

We believe that Aramark's core operations are undervalued and can see significant EPS enhancement through operational improvements and potential spinoff of its Uniform business. Our base case price target of $58 represen…

pitch long inconclusive
SERV ServiceMaster

We recommend a long position in ServiceMaster due to its durable competitive position and strong cash flow generation abilities. The pest control industry has a long growth runway, and with a 3-year price target of $78, …

pitch long failed
-88.4%
SERV ServiceMaster Global Holdings, Inc.
2019 Pershing Square Challenge

We propose a three-fold constructivist plan for ServiceMaster to enhance shareholder value, including expanding the board with pest control experts, improving employee training and technology at Terminix, and spinning of…

pitch long worked
+164.0%
USFD US Foods Holding Corp.
2019 Pershing Square Challenge

We recommend a long position in US Foods, which operates in a recession-resistant industry and has strong competitive advantages. The stock has recently declined over 30% due to operational challenges, but we believe tha…

pitch long inconclusive
USFD US Foods Holding Corp.

USFD is positioned to benefit from its scale in the fragmented food distribution industry, which has high barriers to entry. The company has shown strong earnings growth and has the potential to narrow the valuation gap …

pitch long worked
+174.6%
USFD US Foods Holding Corp.
2019 Pershing Square Challenge

US Foods is positioned for significant gross margin expansion driven by independents and private label growth. The company has a clear path to reduce operational expenses and improve EBITDA margins, while activist involv…

position long inconclusive
CNQ Canadian Natural Resources Limited

Canadian Natural Resources is facing significant liabilities related to its tailing ponds, which could range from CA$2 billion to CA$9 billion or more. This presents a more negative skew in its valuation, making it less …

position long inconclusive
ITRK Intertek Group plc

Intertek is well-positioned to benefit from the rising concern for environmental sustainability, as it is developing a sustainability assurance service. The company has a strong market position in testing, inspection, an…

position long inconclusive
WKL Wolters Kluwer N.V.

Wolters Kluwer holds strong market share positions in tax and accounting, as well as in health, with a revenue growth rate that has improved recently. Despite trading at 23x earnings and having a moderate internal rate o…

position long inconclusive
GOOGL Alphabet Inc.

The investment in Google is viewed as a long-term hold despite current headwinds in the advertising market. The company has strong fundamentals, including ownership of the Android platform and a robust search system, but…

position long inconclusive
CSU Constellation Software Inc.

Constellation Software remains a strong investment due to its excellent capital allocation and ability to turn around underperforming businesses. However, there are concerns about the legacy portfolio and the need for on…

position long inconclusive
MSFT Microsoft Corporation

Microsoft has a dominant position in the operating system market and has successfully transitioned to the cloud. The company's cloud services are deeply integrated into its software, making it difficult for customers to …

pitch long inconclusive
ARMK Aramark

ARMK is considered a compelling long investment with a projected 23% internal rate of return over three years and a favorable 4-to-1 upside/downside risk profile.

position long inconclusive
EAF GrafTech International Ltd.

GrafTech makes ultra-high-performance electrodes used in electric arc furnaces for steel production. The odds of losing money are muted, and there is potential for significant upside, possibly doubling or tripling the in…

pitch long inconclusive
GRAF GrafTech International Ltd.
null

GrafTech is uniquely positioned in the ultra-high-performance electrode market due to its backward integration with needle coke production, which is critical for electrode manufacturing. The company has secured 70% of it…

position long
IPSCO IPSCO Inc.
null

IPSCO was an attractive investment due to its strong cash position and predictable cash flows, with $15 per share in cash and locked-in earnings for the next two years. The stock was trading at $45, effectively valuing t…

position long inconclusive
null GrafTech International Ltd.

GrafTech is seen as a potential compounder that could be undervalued, making it an attractive investment for someone who is cautious about price. The investor believes that with the right conditions, it could yield signi…

position long inconclusive
MA MasterCard Incorporated

MasterCard is considered a compounder, but the investor is uncertain about its current valuation multiple. Despite this, it remains a strong candidate for long-term investment due to its business model.

position long inconclusive
null South Korean Market

The investor believes that investing in the South Korean market, potentially through the KOSPI index, could yield good returns as the market cap is relatively low compared to major US companies. The investor sees signifi…

position long inconclusive
null Fiat Chrysler Automobiles

The investor has maintained their position in Fiat Chrysler, believing in the company's strong management and execution of its business plan post the passing of its former CEO, Sergio Marchionne. The investor trusts the …

position long inconclusive
null Kweichow Moutai

Kweichow Moutai is viewed as a high-margin company with a strong brand in the luxury liquor market. The investor highlights its significant market cap and pricing power, suggesting it is a solid investment despite not kn…

position long inconclusive
PBI Pitney Bowes Inc.

Despite being downgraded and facing challenges from internet business models, Pitney Bowes generates significant free cash flow and is investing in new business lines. However, the investor exited the position after mana…

position long inconclusive
STZ Constellation Brands, Inc.

The investor held onto Constellation Brands after it was upgraded to Investment Grade because it was maturing later in the year, indicating confidence in its credit quality and future performance.

position long inconclusive
HCA HCA Healthcare, Inc.

HCA is a significant position in the investor's portfolio, with both secured and unsecured paper held. The investor believes that despite trading like Investment Grade, there is still value in holding HCA due to its stro…

position long inconclusive
THC Tenet Healthcare Corporation

Tenet is a 4.25% position in the investor's portfolio, with a focus on secured hospital bonds, which are considered very safe unless fraud occurs. The investor appreciates the spread pick-up from holding the unsecured pa…

position long
NLSN Nielsen Holdings plc

I like Nielsen for its underlying cash flow generation, but there are questions about the sustainability of its business model. It has a clear pathway to paying down debt, which makes it a viable investment despite the r…

position long inconclusive
S Sprint Corporation

Sprint is a company that many High Yield investors have a love-hate relationship with. My investment thesis is based on the value of the spectrum it owns, which is substantial enough to cover the bonds easily, despite th…

position long inconclusive
OLN Olin Corporation

Olin is a chemical company with a stable management team and a conservative capital structure. It generates significant free cash flow and has the potential to be upgraded to Investment Grade, which could lead to substan…

position long inconclusive
PAG Penske Automotive Group, Inc.

Penske Automotive is an auto retailer that generates stable free cash flow from its parts, service, and repair operations. Despite concerns about the long-term auto cycle, the company has shown resilience in past downtur…

position long inconclusive
IMKTA Ingles Markets, Incorporated

Ingles Markets is a supermarket company that has successfully navigated increased competition over the years. Its strong performance and the ability to adapt to market changes make it a valuable addition to the portfolio…

position long inconclusive
DJCO Daily Journal Corporation

Daily Journal is a misunderstood company with significant off-financial statements value, including deferred revenue and a hidden technology business that is not reflected in its financials. The company has a strong mana…

pitch long inconclusive
DJCO Daily Journal Corporation

The Daily Journal Corporation has significant hidden value in its technology business, which is expected to generate at least $150 million in recurring revenue over the next decade. With a current market cap of $300 mill…

position long inconclusive
null Talas Capital

Talas Capital focuses on undervalued Turkish securities that trade for three times earnings, and despite market declines, the fund has remained flat. The long-term strategy aims to outperform both the Turkish market and …

position long inconclusive
null Dhandho Holdings

Peterson Capital Management has acquired about 3% of Mohnish Pabrai’s Dhandho Holdings through private transactions, viewing it as a way to gain indirect exposure to the Indian stock market.