Etsy, Inc.
Thesis
Etsy's unique position as a leader in handmade e-commerce is underappreciated by the market. The company's commitment to its sellers and the introduction of Etsy Ads are expected to drive significant buyer growth, leading to a projected price target of $86, representing a 76% upside.
Did it work?
The long call was directionally correct — Etsy returned +26.3% over the 89 months since the pitch — but this falls far short of the thesis's stated 76% upside to an $86 target, implying only ~3% annualized over a period well beyond any reasonable target horizon. Etsy Ads did help drive a multi-year growth phase (and the stock briefly traded far above the target during the 2021 e-commerce boom), but the gains largely round-tripped as buyer growth stalled post-pandemic. The thesis partially played out: right direction, materially underdelivered magnitude.