Peloton Interactive, Inc.
Thesis
Peloton is an expensive add-on fitness product with a smaller total addressable market (TAM) than market expectations. The company's churn is artificially low due to legacy contracts, and it faces significant competition without a competitive moat. Therefore, it is an attractive medium-term short opportunity.
Did it work?
The thesis dynamics largely played out: Peloton's demand collapsed as pandemic tailwinds faded, the company repeatedly slashed guidance, churn rose as legacy contracts rolled off, and competition intensified — all consistent with the claimed smaller TAM and lack of a moat. The stock's well-documented collapse from pandemic highs (a decline of roughly 90%+ from early-2021 levels) strongly validated the short direction. However, with no price data and an unknown pitch date, I cannot confirm the entry point or the exact return realized on this specific short, so confidence remains low.