Nuance Communications, Inc.
Thesis
The new CEO Mark Benjamin is experienced and incentivized to improve long-term stock performance. Recent business optimizations and growth opportunities, particularly in international markets and partnerships, suggest that the current EPS expectations are conservative, indicating potential upside for the stock.
Did it work?
failed
confidence: high
The long thesis anticipated upside from a new CEO's optimizations and international growth, but the stock declined 78% over the 76 months since the pitch — a catastrophic loss that directly contradicts the projected upside. With more than six years elapsed, well beyond any reasonable horizon for the stated catalysts, the thesis has been decisively invalidated by the price action.