Macy's, Inc.
Thesis
Macy's shares are currently undervalued due to temporary sales lag from rebranded stores. As customers adapt to Macy's promotional style and product offerings, sales are expected to recover, leading to a significant increase in revenue and stock price. The company has shown operational improvements post-merger, and historical trends suggest that retail stocks may be nearing a bottom, making this an opportune time to invest.
Did it work?
The thesis called for a significant increase in revenue and stock price as sales recovered from a 'temporary' lag, but after roughly 18.6 years (223 months) the stock is down 2.0%, far short of any meaningful appreciation. The implied recovery never materialized as a durable re-rating; Macy's instead spent the period in a prolonged structural decline in mall-based department store retail. With nearly two decades elapsed against a short-term recovery thesis and a flat-to-negative return, the thesis is decisively invalidated.