Macy's, Inc.
Thesis
Macy's shares are undervalued due to slow sales growth at rebranded stores, but improvements in sales growth and margins are expected in the near future. The company's stock buyback program and ownership of most stores provide downside protection, making it a strong long-term investment.
Did it work?
The thesis predicted near-term improvements in sales growth and margins that would unlock the stock's undervaluation, but nearly 20 years (235 months) later the shares are down 2.0%, meaning essentially zero price appreciation over a period far exceeding any reasonable long-term horizon. While the real estate and buyback 'downside protection' element arguably held (the stock didn't collapse), the core value-unlocking catalyst never materialized, and the stock dramatically underperformed the broader market over two decades. The thesis's expected re-rating simply never occurred.