Alcoa Corporation
AA
pitch
long
Jordan Barron, Nielsen Fields, Noah Scherz
Thesis
We recommend a long position on Alcoa with a 2018 price target of $16, representing 60% of upside to current valuation and a 19% IRR. The market may misunderstand the quality of Alcoa’s core businesses, and the current valuation allows for the purchase of the upstream business for free.
Did it work?
failed
confidence: high
The stock price of Alcoa increased by 52.3% since the pitch, but this is significantly below the expected 60% upside to a target price of $16. Given that 112 months have passed since the pitch, which far exceeds the original time horizon, the thesis did not achieve its stated goals.
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