Skip to content
P Pitch Archive Stock pitches across investing competitions
← Spring 2016

Alcoa Corporation

AA pitch long Jordan Barron, Nielsen Fields, Noah Scherz

Thesis

We recommend a long position on Alcoa with a 2018 price target of $16, representing 60% of upside to current valuation and a 19% IRR. The market may misunderstand the quality of Alcoa’s core businesses, and the current valuation allows for the purchase of the upstream business for free.

Did it work?

partial confidence: medium

The long call on direction proved correct and the stated ~60% upside to the $16 target was ultimately realized, with the stock returning +60.7% since the pitch. However, that return took 112 months rather than arriving by the thesis's stated 2018 deadline, implying an annualized return of only ~5% versus the promised 19% IRR. The valuation view was vindicated in level but not in timing or return rate, so the thesis only partially played out.