Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
AAP
pitch
long
Jordan Barron, Nielsen Fields, Noah Scherz
Thesis
We recommend a long on Advance Auto Parts with a price target of $280, offering 75%+ upside from today’s price of $161. We believe EPS can double to ~$16 over the next four to five years via multiple operational improvements, and at 18x forward EPS, AAP is worth $280 in 2019.
Did it work?
failed
confidence: high
The stock price of Advance Auto Parts has decreased by 63% since the pitch, which is a significant decline and contradicts the long thesis that anticipated a price target of $280. Given that the time elapsed is well beyond the stated horizon of four to five years, the thesis has clearly failed to materialize.
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