Dollarama Inc.
Thesis
The investor believes in the long-term growth potential of Dollarama, expecting a store count growth of 1,700 stores, which represents a 9.1% CAGR over five years, outperforming the 5% consensus. They also anticipate sustained same-store sales growth driven by an improved product mix.
Did it work?
The full stated five-year horizon has elapsed (64 months), yet the long position returned -6.9%, a negative outcome that contradicts the thesis of above-consensus growth driving shareholder returns. While Dollarama's store expansion narrative may have partially materialized, the stock's failure to appreciate over the complete investment period means the pitch did not deliver for a long investor. The modest magnitude of the loss and the inability to verify the specific store-count and same-store sales claims temper the certainty somewhat.