Yum China Holdings, Inc.
Thesis
We recommend a long on Yum China Holdings (YUMC) with a 2-year price target of $45, offering 35% upside from today’s price of $33. We see a bull-case upside of 61% and an attractive upside/downside ratio of 2.7x. We project a 64% EPS upside in the next three years driven by sustainable comparable sales growth and margin expansion opportunities.
Did it work?
The long thesis targeted $45 (35% upside) from $33 over two years, and the stock has returned +36.4%, implying a price of roughly $45 — effectively achieving the stated price target. Reaching the target return decisively confirms the core of the pitch regardless of exactly how much time has elapsed, since hitting the target early would only strengthen the result. While the underlying 64% EPS growth projection can't be verified, the price objective that defined the thesis has been met.