AMERCO
Thesis
AMERCO is poised for continued revenue growth driven by demographic shifts towards renting versus home ownership, with a strong market share in the self-move rental market. The company has aggressively invested in its self-storage business, which will enhance margins and revenue growth, supporting a target price of $477, representing over 40% upside from current levels.
Did it work?
The thesis called for over 40% upside to a $477 target on the back of self-storage-driven margin and revenue growth, but the stock has instead collapsed roughly 80% over the ~10 years since the pitch. With the full stated horizon long elapsed and the price moving decisively against the long direction, the thesis has clearly failed. The demographic tailwind and storage investment either did not materialize into the projected earnings growth or were overwhelmed by other pressures.