Skyworks Solutions, Inc.
Thesis
Skyworks Solutions has excellent operational economics with best-in-class revenue growth and profitability, driven by their unique ability to package RF components in smartphones. The company has a long runway for growth, particularly in the Internet of Things segment, and a target price of $127 suggests a 63% upside from current levels.
Did it work?
The pitch called for a 63% upside to $127, but after 124 months — roughly a decade, far beyond any reasonable horizon for a target-price thesis — Skyworks is down 12.4%, the opposite direction of the promised return. The thesis's core claims of best-in-class growth and a long IoT-driven runway did not materialize, as the stock stagnated while smartphone RF content dynamics and customer concentration weighed on the business. With the full horizon long elapsed and the return decisively negative, the thesis is clearly broken.