SAP SE
Thesis
While SAP's strategy is not flawed, it is expected to experience slower growth relative to Oracle due to its lack of investment in cloud technology. At the right price, SAP could be an attractive investment, but currently, it trades at a premium compared to Oracle, which is better positioned for future growth.
Did it work?
The thesis is a conditional long: SAP could be attractive 'at the right price' but is currently deemed overpriced relative to Oracle given slower cloud-driven growth. No price performance data and no elapsed time are provided, so there is no way to verify whether the valuation gap closed, whether SAP underperformed Oracle, or whether the growth dynamics played out as predicted. Without either price evidence or confirmation of the thesis's specific claims, no verdict on success or failure is possible.