Contura Energy, Inc.
Thesis
Contura Energy is the largest metallurgical coal company in the US, formed during the bankruptcy of Alpha Natural Resources. The shares trade at about 2.5x estimated EBITDA and 3.5-4x free cash flow, which is considered very attractive compared to peers. Despite cyclical risks, the valuation presents a compelling investment opportunity.
Did it work?
The pitch is a valuation-driven long thesis on Contura Energy, arguing the shares were cheap at ~2.5x EBITDA and 3.5-4x FCF versus peers. No price performance is available and the time elapsed since the pitch is unknown, so there is no way to verify whether the valuation gap closed, the stock re-rated, or the cyclical risks overwhelmed the thesis. Without price data or confirmation of any thesis-specific catalyst, the outcome cannot be judged.