Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc.
Thesis
Valeant was trading at 10x revenue despite making a loss, with adjusted accounting claiming a 55% margin. The company was involved in unethical practices, and despite being well-funded, it was expected to go bust due to unsustainable business practices.
Did it work?
The stock rose +96.6% since the pitch, a large adverse move for a short position that would have produced substantial losses. While the thesis raised legitimate concerns about Valeant's aggressive accounting and unsustainable practices, over the measured period the market moved decisively against the short, and the predicted collapse/bankruptcy did not materialize in a way that validated the position. With time elapsed unknown, the clear negative price direction dominates the judgement, though the unverified timeline keeps confidence below high.