American Airlines Group Inc.

The thesis rested on American Airlines' potential failure to survive the COVID-19 travel collapse, but that central event did not occur: the airline avoided bankruptcy, secured roughly $5.8 billion in U.S. government payroll support plus loans, raised substantial private capital, and its stock recovered sharply from its 2020 lows. With no price data and unknown elapsed time, the verdict rests on the thesis event itself, which was decisively invalidated. Confidence is low because no price performance was provided to quantify the short's outcome.