Alphabet Inc.
Thesis
Alphabet's spending on 'Other Bets' depresses its earnings, inflating the stated P/E multiple. Adjusting for this spending and the cash on the balance sheet reveals that investors are not paying much more than a market multiple for its core Search business.
Did it work?
The pitch is a valuation argument — that adjusted for Other Bets losses and net cash, Alphabet's core Search business trades near a market multiple — rather than a thesis tied to a specific verifiable catalyst. With no price performance data and no elapsed-time information, there is no way to confirm whether the market re-rated the stock as the thesis anticipated. The thesis dynamics themselves (Other Bets spending levels, cash position) cannot be checked against any provided outcome, so no confirmation or invalidation is possible.