Amadeus IT Group
Thesis
We recommend a long position in Amadeus IT Group with a target price of €78 by Dec-2028, representing a 68% upside and a 22% IRR including dividends. The investment thesis is supported by underappreciated growth opportunities in Air IT Solutions, margin normalization, and an AI narrative that is significantly overpriced. The risk-reward is exceptional at the current valuation, with a 5:1 Bull/Bear skew.
Did it work?
The stock price has declined by 15.6% since the pitch, which contradicts the long position thesis that anticipated significant upside. Given that the investment horizon extends to December 2028, the current performance is well below expectations and indicates that the anticipated growth opportunities and margin normalization have not materialized as expected.
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