MSA Safety Incorporated
Thesis
MSA is positioned to benefit from the connected worker revolution in gas detection, with a significant runway for growth as connectivity penetration is only at ~10%. The company is expected to gain market share and improve unit economics through its MSA+ subscription service, which generates recurring revenue. Additionally, MSA is set to capitalize on a dependable SCBA replacement cycle, further enhancing its market position and financial performance.
Did it work?
Over 28 months, MSA returned just +1.4% — essentially flat — which is far short of what a thesis premised on a 'significant runway for growth' from connected-worker adoption, MSA+ recurring revenue, and the SCBA replacement cycle implies. While the direction was technically positive, the anticipated growth acceleration and market re-rating never materialized in the share price, and the return likely lagged the broader market substantially. Confidence is medium because the operational elements of the thesis (connectivity penetration, subscription adoption) may have progressed, but the investment case as pitched clearly did not deliver.