MSA Safety Incorporated
Thesis
MSA is positioned to benefit from the connected worker revolution in gas detection, with a significant runway for growth as connectivity penetration is only at ~10%. The company is expected to gain market share and improve unit economics through its MSA+ subscription service, which generates recurring revenue. Additionally, MSA is set to capitalize on a dependable SCBA replacement cycle, further enhancing its market position and financial performance.
Did it work?
While MSA's stock has increased by 2.7% over the past 28 months, this modest return does not fully align with the long thesis that anticipated significant growth from the connected worker revolution and market share gains. The thesis elements regarding the MSA+ subscription service and SCBA replacement cycle may still be valid, but the lack of substantial price appreciation suggests that the expected benefits have not yet materialized as anticipated.
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