ANGI Homeservices Inc.
Thesis
ANGI is positioned to dominate the home services market through its pre-priced model, which enhances user experience and drives transaction frequency. The company is expected to significantly improve its lifetime value to customer acquisition cost ratio by 2026, while its strong management and data advantage over competitors further solidify its market position. The projected average target price is $39.57, with a blended target price of $45.26 based on various scenarios.
Did it work?
The long thesis called for ANGI to dominate home services and reach target prices of ~$39.57-$45.26 by 2026, but the stock has instead collapsed -97.0% over the 64 months since the pitch. This is a decisive invalidation of the core thesis: the pre-priced model and data advantage did not translate into improving unit economics or market leadership, and the price is nowhere near the stated targets. With the stated horizon essentially elapsed and the thesis dynamics clearly broken, this is an unambiguous failure.