Angi Inc.
Thesis
Angi Inc. is transitioning from a lead generation model to a pre-priced transaction model, which is expected to improve economics significantly. With a large and growing total addressable market (TAM) of $500 billion, driven by millennial home ownership, Angi is well-positioned to capitalize on this shift. The pre-priced model is projected to convert 18% of Angi's GMV by 2030, compared to just 1% today, indicating substantial growth potential.
Did it work?
The long thesis on Angi's transition to a pre-priced transaction model has decisively failed, with the stock down 97.0% over 64 months — far exceeding the multi-year horizon implied by the 2030 projections. Rather than the projected conversion of 18% of GMV driving significant economic improvement, the equity's near-total collapse indicates the thesis's core dynamics (model transition monetizing a $500B TAM) did not materialize in a way that created shareholder value. With most of the stated horizon elapsed and a catastrophic return, the thesis is clearly broken.