On Holding AG
Thesis
On is currently undervalued at 15-16x EBITDA, while its growth rate is significantly higher than that of competitors like Nike. With expected valuation at 30-35x EBITDA due to its strong growth and founder-led management, On presents an attractive investment opportunity, especially as it expands into apparel.
Did it work?
inconclusive
confidence: low
The pitch is a long thesis predicated on a valuation re-rating from 15-16x to 30-35x EBITDA driven by superior growth and apparel expansion, but no price performance and no elapsed timeframe are provided. Without either data point, there is no way to verify whether the re-rating occurred, whether the apparel expansion progressed, or whether the stock moved in the direction the thesis required. The verdict must therefore remain open.