SPX Corporation
Thesis
Elie Mishaan from Bryant Street Capital sold SPXC because its multiple exceeded their view of fair value, but he acknowledges that it has performed well since the sale, indicating a strong underlying business despite the decision to sell.
Did it work?
This pitch is internally ambiguous: it is labeled long, but the actual action described is a sale of SPXC on valuation grounds, with the manager himself acknowledging the stock has performed well since the exit. That continued strong performance would confirm the 'strong underlying business' observation but undercut the valuation-based decision to sell, and there is no price data or stated horizon to independently verify either leg of the thesis. With unknown time elapsed and no verifiable performance figures, there is insufficient basis to call the thesis worked or failed.