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P Pitch Archive Stock pitches across investing competitions
← Fall 2024 (50th edition)

Blue Bird Corporation

BLBD pitch long Erik Listoe

Thesis

We recommend a BUY for Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ: BLBD) with a base-case price target of $65, implying a 16.1% IRR through 2027. The company is positioned to benefit from structural tailwinds in the North American school bus market, including fleet electrification and a strong replacement cycle, which will drive robust growth. At its current price of $41, BLBD offers a compelling asymmetric risk-reward profile with upside potential to $110 in a bull-case scenario.

Did it work?

worked confidence: high

BLBD rose 44.5% from $41 to roughly $59 over 28 months, an annualized return of about 17% that is running ahead of the stated 16.1% IRR through 2027. With most of the multi-year horizon elapsed, the stock sits within ~10% of the $65 base-case target, validating the thesis of structural tailwinds from fleet electrification and the replacement cycle. The bull case ($110) remains untested, but the base-case trajectory has essentially played out on pace.